FALSE CORRELATION
A false correlation occurs when someone presumes that two things that occur in the same time or the same place are connected. Frequently, people mistake the earlier event for the cause of the event (post hoc, ergo propter hoc), thereby committing a logical fallacy.
Overview:
Many times, research reveals a trend or a connection between two things. Sometimes, that trend or connection is meaningful. Other times, it isn’t. In order to be able to tell the difference between a false correlation and a matter of cause-and-effect, someone engaging in critical thinking must fall back on the scientific method and look for alternate causality. They must see if the correlation remains true when analyzed closely.
Consider the so-called link between vaccines and autism. As vaccination rates went up, so did autism rates. A connection! However, even in places where vaccination rates went down (or stayed the same), autism rates continued to rise. No valid mechanism of action existed to demonstrate a connection between how autism worked and how vaccines could cause it.
However, there was an alternate explanation—as people became more aware of autism, and as the definition of autism broadened to include more cases, then the ability for people to ‘notice’ autism also increased. The link between autism and vaccines was no more valid, logically, than a link between autism and the purchase of color televisions (or anything else that has trended up, gradually).*
Application:
Students need to construct arguments in which causality is explained and not simply assumed. More importantly, students need to be careful not to see a pattern that isn’t there just because it’s convenient. When looking into an issue, students need to consider alternate causality, and they need to be careful of overgeneralization.
False correlation happens when the person engaging in an argument looks at only part of the topic. In some cases, the argument fails because a mechanism of action (or link) is ignored. In other cases, the correlation ignores a third, related factor that is responsible for both of the observed and documented trends.
What to Avoid:
Avoid jumping to conclusions. Student writers will frequently encounter trends in their reading, and rather than documenting the what of the trend, they have a responsibility to understand the why of the event.
*To be fair to the rest of this particular argument, it is also worth noting that advocates for the vaccine-autism connection also falsified studies and documents to further support their cause.
A false correlation occurs when someone presumes that two things that occur in the same time or the same place are connected. Frequently, people mistake the earlier event for the cause of the event (post hoc, ergo propter hoc), thereby committing a logical fallacy.
Overview:
Many times, research reveals a trend or a connection between two things. Sometimes, that trend or connection is meaningful. Other times, it isn’t. In order to be able to tell the difference between a false correlation and a matter of cause-and-effect, someone engaging in critical thinking must fall back on the scientific method and look for alternate causality. They must see if the correlation remains true when analyzed closely.
Consider the so-called link between vaccines and autism. As vaccination rates went up, so did autism rates. A connection! However, even in places where vaccination rates went down (or stayed the same), autism rates continued to rise. No valid mechanism of action existed to demonstrate a connection between how autism worked and how vaccines could cause it.
However, there was an alternate explanation—as people became more aware of autism, and as the definition of autism broadened to include more cases, then the ability for people to ‘notice’ autism also increased. The link between autism and vaccines was no more valid, logically, than a link between autism and the purchase of color televisions (or anything else that has trended up, gradually).*
Application:
Students need to construct arguments in which causality is explained and not simply assumed. More importantly, students need to be careful not to see a pattern that isn’t there just because it’s convenient. When looking into an issue, students need to consider alternate causality, and they need to be careful of overgeneralization.
False correlation happens when the person engaging in an argument looks at only part of the topic. In some cases, the argument fails because a mechanism of action (or link) is ignored. In other cases, the correlation ignores a third, related factor that is responsible for both of the observed and documented trends.
What to Avoid:
Avoid jumping to conclusions. Student writers will frequently encounter trends in their reading, and rather than documenting the what of the trend, they have a responsibility to understand the why of the event.
*To be fair to the rest of this particular argument, it is also worth noting that advocates for the vaccine-autism connection also falsified studies and documents to further support their cause.
